Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop

The implications of climate change for the environment and society depend on the rate and magnitude of climate change, but also on changes in technology, economics, lifestyles, and policy that will affect the capacity both for limiting and adapting to climate change. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment reviews the state of science for considering socioeconomic changes over long time frames and clarifies definitions and concepts to facilitate communication across research communities. The book also explores driving forces and key uncertainties that will affect impacts, adaptation, vulnerability and mitigation in the future. Furthermore, it considers research needs and the elements of a strategy for describing socioeconomic and environmental futures for climate change research and assessment. Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment explores the current state of science in scenario development and application, asserting that while little attention has been given to preparing quantitative and narrative socioeconomic information, advances in computing capacity are making development of such probabilistic scenarios a reality. It also addresses a number of specific methodological challenges and opportunities and discusses opportunities for a next round of assessments. Table of ContentsFront Matter1 Introduction2 Needs for Socioeconomic Scenarios3 Evolving Methods and Approaches4 Driving Forces and Critical Uncertainties in Adaptation, Vulnerability, and Mitigation5 Representative Concentration Pathways and Socioeconomic Scenarios and Narratives6 Lessons from Experience7 Reports from Breakout Groups8 Concluding CommentsReferencesAppendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of ParticipantsAppendix B: Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff