Techniques for Forecasting the Cessation of Lightning at Cape Canaveral Air Station and the Kennedy Space Center

This is a AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSONAFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING report procured by the Pentagon and made available for public release. It has been reproduced in the best form available to the Pentagon. It is not spiral-bound, but rather assembled with Velobinding in a soft, white linen cover. The Storming Media report number is A828383. The abstract provided by the Pentagon follows: The focus of this research effort is directed toward identifying new methods of forecasting the cessation of lightning along the Central Atlantic Coast of Florida. Cloud-to-ground lightning flashes place Air Force (AF) personnel and assets at risk almost daily at this location. Providing a more accurate method of forecasting the cessation of lightning would allow for safer and more efficient execution of AF operations. A data set consisting of 40 thunderstorm cases was identified within a 90 nautical miles (nmi) region surrounding the Melbourne, Florida WSR-88D (KMLB) site. Each case falls between the months of May and September and the years of 1995 through 1997. Simple and multiple linear regression models are built using this dataset. Variables included max Vertically Integrated Liquid water (VIL), max reflectivity, max peak current, peak cumulative flash rate, peak negative flash rate, and peak positive flash rate. Results indicate that three of the simple linear regression models to some extent accurately represent the data. Additionally, when the data set is separated by thunderstorm cell type (multi or single) and cell specific regressions are built, results indicate that the regressions based on the single-cell data set produce a substantial increase in forecast skill compared to that of climatology. In fact, some regressions are shown to improve forecast accuracy by 90% over that of climatology.