9780195064650-0195064658-Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science (Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series)

Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science (Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series)

ISBN-13: 9780195064650
ISBN-10: 0195064658
Edition: 1
Author: Kristin Shrader-Frechette, Roger M. Cooke
Publication date: 1991
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Format: Hardcover 336 pages
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Book details

ISBN-13: 9780195064650
ISBN-10: 0195064658
Edition: 1
Author: Kristin Shrader-Frechette, Roger M. Cooke
Publication date: 1991
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Format: Hardcover 336 pages

Summary

Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science (Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series) (ISBN-13: 9780195064650 and ISBN-10: 0195064658), written by authors Kristin Shrader-Frechette, Roger M. Cooke, was published by Oxford University Press in 1991. With an overall rating of 4.0 stars, it's a notable title among other History & Philosophy books. You can easily purchase or rent Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science (Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series) (Hardcover) from BooksRun, along with many other new and used History & Philosophy books and textbooks. And, if you're looking to sell your copy, our current buyback offer is $0.3.

Description

This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.

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